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Engineer the decision before the trade

Learn to turn a trading idea into a testable system of evidence, risk controls and execution permissions.

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Original examples. Explicit assumptions. Assessed work.

Available today: one free sample lesson with a calculator, worksheet and answer key.

All programs are planned and none is open for enrolment. See program status

Decision note F02

A positive estimate still needs evidence

0.56 × 12 − 0.44 × 10 − 1.80

+0.52estimated units

Arithmetic check
PassedEstimated value is above zero after 1.80 units of cost.
Decision status
Evidence incompleteEVIDENCE_INCOMPLETE

Synthetic teaching case. Positive arithmetic does not authorize new exposure. Work through this case

What you will produce

Each planned program ends in an artifact you can inspect. Each builds on the one before it.

  1. 01

    A documented decision

    State the hypothesis, costs and missing evidence, then record whether the idea deserves more testing.

    Foundations, planned

  2. 02

    A testable architecture

    Define data timing, validation, risk controls and the conditions for permission before any code exists.

    Engineering, planned

  3. 03

    A reproducible paper system

    Implement the full lifecycle in historical replay, with tests and a paper ledger that reconciles.

    Build, planned

A decision you can audit

Foundations ends in a five-part decision dossier. A well-supported rejection counts as a successful result. This one is completed for the synthetic baseline case; the same completed dossier is on page 2 of the sample answer key.

Complete it yourself on the sample worksheet

Decision dossier, synthetic F02 baseline

Teaching example. Fictional units.
  1. HypothesisA fictional candidate has an estimated 0.56 probability of a 12-unit gross gain against a 10-unit gross loss.
  2. AssumptionsTotal round-trip cost is 1.80 units. Inputs are fresh at decision time. The 0.56 is an estimate whose method and uncertainty are not documented.
  3. EV calculation0.56 × 12 − 0.44 × 10 − 1.80 = +0.52 estimated units. Break-even probability 53.64%.
  4. Rejection reasonEVIDENCE_INCOMPLETE. The arithmetic is positive, but lowering the estimate by 0.03 reverses the sign and nothing shows how reliable the estimate is.
  5. Next experimentDocument how the estimate is produced, measure how much it varies across separate periods, and model cost by trade size before any further test.

The Foundations sequence

Six modules, each taught the same way: explain, inspect a worked case, attempt, receive feedback and record a decision. Times are planning estimates and will be replaced by measured timing from learner pilots.

  1. F01

    Signal and permission

    Distinguish an observation, an estimate and an authorization.

    About 35 min, planned
  2. F02

    Outcomes and costs

    Calculate net expected value and break-even assumptions.

    Sample lesson available
  3. F03

    Evidence and uncertainty

    Separate an estimate from a known probability.

    About 45 min, planned
  4. F04

    Trying to invalidate a result

    Identify leakage, selection bias and fragile evaluation.

    About 40 min, planned
  5. F05

    Risk and lifecycle

    Separate new-risk permission from risk reduction.

    About 35 min, planned
  6. F06

    Decision dossier

    Produce a traceable go-test-further or reject decision.

    About 45 min, planned

Prerequisites: Basic percentages, spreadsheet arithmetic and English reading. No Python installation or brokerage account.

Foundations is the first program

A self-paced, text-first course with six modules, worked exercises, six checkpoint sets and a final scenario assessment. You finish with a documented decision, not an implemented strategy.

Read the Foundations scopeTry the sample first

$99USD, one-time, planned starting price

Planned Enrolment is not open.

The complete course and every advertised download will exist before enrolment opens.

Later programs

Each opens only after its own readiness checks. None can be bought today.

ProgramYou producePlanned priceStatus
EngineeringA testable architecture: a 12 to 20 page dossier with eight component specifications$499 USDPlanned. Enrolment is closed.
BuildA reproducible paper system: historical replay, tests and a reconciled paper ledger$1,490 USDPlanned. No cohort is scheduled. Applications are closed.
Private Architecture ReviewAn evidence register, severity-ranked findings, prioritised changes and an 8 to 12 page reportFrom $2,500 USDPlanned. Requests are closed.

Compare all programs

How material is checked before release

Only released material will be sold. Each released lesson names its author and technical reviewer and keeps an edition history.

  1. 1

    Drafted

    Original text, synthetic data and worked answers, with sources listed.

    The sample lesson is here.

  2. 2

    Technically reviewed

    A named reviewer checks equations, uncertainty language and code behaviour.

  3. 3

    Learner tested

    Target learners use the material while observers record where they struggle.

  4. 4

    Released

    An immutable edition is published, and corrections stay visible afterwards.

Questions

Can I buy a course today?

No. Enrolment is not open for any program. The prices on this site are planned starting prices, shown so that scope and cost are clear before anything is sold.

Is this investment advice or a signal service?

No. QCE teaches how to specify, test and document decisions. It does not recommend instruments, publish signals, manage money or promise profits.

What can I use right now?

The sample lesson, its interactive calculator, the printable worksheet and the answer key. They are free and need no account.

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Updates

Research notes, sample learning materials and development updates are shared on the QCE Telegram channel.

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